Since July, the cheapest used cars on the market have lost value roughly twice as fast as the expensive ones. Compared like for like, cars that typically sell for under $5,000 are down 6.5%. Cars over $20,000 are down between 3% and 4%.
These figures come from the same matching method as our market-wide price index: identical model, model year, mileage band, state and type of seller, compared month by month. Each car is placed in a band by the typical price for its group, not by its own asking price, so the bands don't drift as prices fall.
| Typical price for that car | Change, July to mid-October |
|---|---|
| Under $5,000 | -6.5% |
| $5,000 to $8,000 | -5.1% |
| $8,000 to $12,000 | -4.8% |
| $12,000 to $20,000 | -3.2% |
| $20,000 to $35,000 | -3.7% |
| Over $35,000 | -3.6% |
The pattern is close to a straight line down the price scale until about $12,000. Above that, every band lost a similar amount.
Mileage tells the same story
| Mileage | Change, July to mid-October |
|---|---|
| Under 60,000 | -3.9% |
| 60,000 to 120,000 | -3.9% |
| 120,000 to 180,000 | -4.6% |
| Over 180,000 | -6.1% |
Cars with more than 180,000 miles fell 6.1%, half again as much as anything under 120,000. Old cars show the same thing: models from 2008 or earlier fell 5.9%, those from 2021 or later 3.5%.
In dollars it looks different
A 6.5% fall on a $4,500 car is about $290. A 3.6% fall on a $40,000 truck is $1,440. Expensive cars still lose more money per month. What's different at the bottom is the share, and to a buyer on a fixed budget the share is what matters, because it decides how much car the same money buys.
Why the bottom moves first
Three things point the same way. Cheap cars are mostly sold by private owners, who reprice faster than dealers. Their buyers usually pay cash, so demand rises and falls with household money, and spring tax refunds are the biggest single injection of it in the year. And going into winter, a 200,000-mile car looks like more of a risk than it did in June.
We can't yet show the spring rebound in our own data, because our history begins in June. The autumn fall, though, is clear, and it is steepest exactly where budgets are tightest.
What to do with it
If you are buying under $5,000, the next three months are likely to be the softest prices of the year. The cars are still old, so a little of the saving belongs in an inspection. Our guide to what the bottom of the market actually offers covers what to expect at that price.
If you are selling a cheap car and can wait, waiting until the tax-refund season usually means more buyers with cash. If you can't wait, price it to sell now rather than chasing the market down through December. Current listings under $5,000 show where the market is today.
Frequently asked questions
Are cheap used cars getting cheaper?
Yes, faster than the rest of the market. Compared like for like, cars that typically sell for under $5,000 fell 6.5% between July and mid-October 2026, against 3% to 4% for cars over $20,000.
Do high-mileage cars lose value faster in autumn?
In 2026 they did. Cars with more than 180,000 miles fell 6.1% from July to mid-October, against 3.9% for cars under 120,000 miles. Cars from 2008 or earlier fell 5.9%, those from 2021 or later 3.5%.
When is the best time to buy a cheap used car?
Late autumn and early winter look favorable: prices at the bottom of the market have been falling fastest since July. Demand for cheap cars usually picks up with tax refunds in spring, which is also the better time to sell one if you can wait.
Denis Kataev is a serial solopreneur and the founder of ForCar. With 15+ years in software engineering and 10 years in SEO, he builds data-driven products end to end — backed by a sharp eye for design. At ForCar he mines proprietary vehicle datasets, turning raw numbers into buying advice you can actually trust.
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