Pull the average asking price for every state and the spread is startling. The top of the list runs at more than two and a half times the bottom. Written down as a headline it sounds like a finding about cost of living, or dealer greed, or supply.
It is none of those. It is a finding about what is standing on the lots.
| State | Average asking price | Pickups in the mix | Average age |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | $27,361 | 33.5% | 10.2 yrs |
| New Mexico | $21,341 | 26.2% | 11.0 yrs |
| Idaho | $20,475 | 23.2% | 11.1 yrs |
| Tennessee | $16,494 | 27.3% | 11.4 yrs |
| Texas | $15,513 | 23.0% | 11.9 yrs |
| California | $16,138 | 13.1% | 11.8 yrs |
| New York | $12,584 | 10.4% | 12.1 yrs |
| Illinois | $11,478 | 11.3% | 13.8 yrs |
| Washington DC | $10,633 | 6.4% | 13.5 yrs |
Take the trucks out and a third of the gap goes with them
The obvious suspect is the pickup. A full-size truck in Montana asks $38,582 while everything else there asks $24,366, so a market that is a third trucks will post a high average whatever else is true.
We can test that directly. Reprice every state as if its truck share matched DC's 6.4%, leaving the actual prices alone and changing only the mix.
| State | Actual average | Same mix as DC | Gap explained by trucks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | $27,361 | $22,316 | $5,045 |
| New Mexico | $21,341 | $18,124 | $3,217 |
| Tennessee | $16,494 | $14,584 | $1,910 |
| California | $16,138 | $15,679 | $459 |
| New York | $12,584 | $12,414 | $170 |
Montana against DC starts at a gap of $16,728. Hold the mix steady and it falls to $11,677 — so the trucks account for about thirty per cent of it, and something else accounts for the other seventy.
The other seventy per cent is time
That something else is sitting in the first table, in the column nobody reads. A Montana listing averages 10.2 years old. A DC listing averages 13.5.
Mileage tracks it: 98,711 miles in Montana against 127,792 in DC. So the two markets are not selling the same goods at different prices. Montana is selling newer, less-used vehicles that happen to be trucks, and DC is selling older, harder-worn cars that happen to be sedans.
Once you see it in those terms the ranking inverts its meaning. The expensive states are not expensive. They are the states where people list their vehicles sooner.
Illinois is the interesting one
Most of the table sorts neatly — high truck share, young fleet, high average. Illinois breaks the pattern in a way worth noticing.
Its truck share is 11.3%, close to New York's. Its average is $11,478, close to DC's. But its fleet is the oldest in the group at 13.8 years, and adjusting for mix barely moves the number at all — $11,478 becomes $11,200.
So Illinois is cheap for the plainest reason available: the cars are old. No composition effect to unwind, no truck premium hiding in the average. What you see is what is being sold.
What to do with a state average instead
Treat it as a description of the local inventory, not a price signal. It answers "what do people sell here" and it does not answer "will I pay less here".
If you are genuinely comparing markets before a long-distance purchase, the comparison has to be model against model, year against year, mileage band against mileage band. That is the only version that survives the composition problem — and even then, the specific vehicle's history matters more than its geography.
A free VIN check covers the part the averages cannot: what happened to that one car, wherever it is parked.
Frequently asked questions
Why are used cars more expensive in some states?
Mostly because a different product is on sale. Montana's listings average $27,361 against Washington DC's $10,633, but a third of Montana's market is full-size pickups versus 6.4% in DC. Hold the mix steady and the gap narrows from $16,728 to $11,677. The rest is age and mileage: Montana's listings are 3.3 years younger with 29,000 fewer miles.
Should I buy a car in a cheaper state?
Not on the state average alone — it tells you nothing about the car you want. A cheap-average state is usually cheap because its lots are full of older, higher-mileage sedans. Compare the specific model and year across states instead, then weigh the transport cost and your own state's tax and registration rules.
Which state has the most pickups on the used market?
Montana, where 33.5% of listings are full-size or mid-size trucks. Tennessee, New Mexico, Arkansas and Oklahoma all sit above 23%. At the other end, Washington DC is at 6.4% and New York at 10.4%.
Does a state average tell me if I am getting a good deal?
No. It blends pickups with compacts and a three-year-old car with a fifteen-year-old one. To judge a single asking price you need the same model, similar year and similar mileage — and the vehicle's own history, which a VIN check will give you.
Denis Kataev is a serial solopreneur and the founder of ForCar. With 15+ years in software engineering and 10 years in SEO, he builds data-driven products end to end — backed by a sharp eye for design. At ForCar he mines proprietary vehicle datasets, turning raw numbers into buying advice you can actually trust.
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