Measuring how much each state's average premium moved between 2019 and 2023, relative to its own level.
| State | 5-year range | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | $919 – $998 | 2.90% |
| Rhode Island | 3.72% | |
| Washington | 4.00% | |
| Michigan | 4.45% | |
| Arizona | 9.63% | |
| Texas | 10.57% | |
| Virginia | 10.60% | |
| Florida | $1,470 – $1,994 | 11.49% |
$79 versus $524
Hawaii's premium moved seventy-nine dollars across five years. Florida's moved five hundred and twenty-four.
The pattern everywhere else was the same shape: 49 of 51 states cut premiums in 2020, when lockdowns emptied the roads and claims collapsed, then raised them sharply through 2022 and 2023 as repair costs and claim severity caught up.
Hawaii sat it out.
Why one state stayed flat
Driving patterns barely changed. Trip distances on an island are short and largely fixed regardless of what's happening on the mainland. There was no commuting collapse to price into 2020 and no rebound to price out of 2023.
Rate regulation is tight. Hawaii's insurance commissioner reviews and approves rate changes, which damps sharp movements in both directions.
The risk mix is unusual. Low theft, no hail, no freeze events, and the lowest comprehensive premium in the country at $117 — against $473 in South Dakota. Most of what causes volatility elsewhere simply doesn't happen there.
What volatility costs you
A stable market means the quote you accepted three years ago is probably still competitive. A volatile one means it certainly isn't.
In Florida, a policy auto-renewed since 2019 has absorbed a 27.9% increase. In Virginia, 28.0%. Those are the states where re-shopping actually pays, and they're also where the increase is least visible because the whole market moved together.
What to do about it
Re-shop on a schedule, not on a shock. Annual comparison costs an hour and catches drift that no single renewal notice makes obvious.
Comprehensive and collision rose everywhere. Those two components went up in all 51 jurisdictions without exception — only liability fell anywhere, and only in Michigan and Hawaii.
Your ranking can move without your bill moving. Washington slid twelve places in affordability while its own premium rose 6.9%.
Check the car before the quote. A branded title changes what an insurer will write. A VIN check shows title status, and our insurance cost pages show what specific models run.
Frequently asked questions
Which state has the most stable car insurance rates?
Hawaii, whose premium moved just $79 between 2019 and 2023 — a 2.90% coefficient of variation. Rhode Island, Washington and Michigan follow.
Which state has the most volatile insurance?
Florida at 11.49%, swinging from $1,470 to $1,994 across five years. Virginia at 10.60% and Texas at 10.57% are close behind.
Why did premiums fall in 2020 and rise in 2023?
49 of 51 states cut rates in 2020 when lockdowns emptied roads and claims collapsed, then raised them sharply through 2022 and 2023 as repair costs and claim severity caught up.
Why was Hawaii unaffected?
Island trip distances barely changed, rate regulation damps sharp movements, and the risk mix is unusual — low theft, no hail or freeze events, and the country's cheapest comprehensive premium at $117.
Denis Kataev is a serial solopreneur and the founder of ForCar. With 15+ years in software engineering and 10 years in SEO, he builds data-driven products end to end — backed by a sharp eye for design. At ForCar he mines proprietary vehicle datasets, turning raw numbers into buying advice you can actually trust.
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