Between July and mid-October, private sellers lowered their asking prices by 6.1% on a like-for-like basis. Dealers lowered theirs by 3.9%.
Both figures compare the same thing: the same model, model year, mileage band and state, with dealers and private sellers measured separately. It's the same method as our market-wide price index, which put the overall fall at 4.3%.
| Month | Dealer listings | Private sellers |
|---|---|---|
| July | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| August | 98.7 | 98.5 |
| September | 97.3 | 96.2 |
| October (1–18) | 96.1 | 93.9 |
For the first month the two moved together. From August the private side pulled away, and the gap widened every month after.
It isn't just that private sellers have older cars
They do. Private listings skew older than dealer stock, and older cars fell faster this autumn. But the gap survives when you compare cars of the same age.
| Model years | Dealers | Private sellers |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 and older | -5.0% | -7.2% |
| 2009 to 2015 | -4.1% | -5.3% |
| 2016 to 2020 | -3.6% | -6.8% |
| 2021 and newer | -3.5% | -3.2% |
For cars built from 2016 to 2020, private prices fell almost twice as fast as dealer prices. Only on the newest cars, 2021 and later, did the two sides move together.
Why private prices move first
A private seller has one car and usually a reason for selling it now. Often the replacement is already in the driveway, or the car is on a loan, or winter is coming. They also get instant feedback: an ad that draws no messages in a week tells them the price is wrong, and the easiest fix is to lower it.
A dealer has a whole lot of cars and prices them against the market. Holding a car for another month costs money, but dealers plan for it, and they would rather move a car with a trade-in deal than with a lower sticker price.
What to do with it
If you are buying, the autumn discount appears first in private listings, and an ad that has been up for a couple of weeks is already behind the market. Opening below the asking price is reasonable. Before you do, make sure you know what you are buying: most private sellers don't publish the VIN, so ask for it and run it before you drive anywhere.
If you are selling privately, the market is moving 1.5% to 2% a month against you. Price the car right in the first week rather than chasing the market down for a month.
Frequently asked questions
Are private sellers lowering used car prices?
Yes, faster than dealers. Comparing identical model, year, mileage band and state, private-party asking prices fell 6.1% from July to mid-October 2026, against 3.9% for dealers.
Is the gap just because private sellers sell older cars?
No. For 2016–2020 cars, private prices fell 6.8% against 3.6% at dealers. Only on 2021 and newer cars did the two move together.
How should you negotiate with a private seller in autumn?
Expect the price to be softer the longer the ad has been up. Opening below the asking price is reasonable when the market is falling 1.5% to 2% a month. Get the VIN and check the history first, since most private sellers don't publish it.
Denis Kataev is a serial solopreneur and the founder of ForCar. With 15+ years in software engineering and 10 years in SEO, he builds data-driven products end to end — backed by a sharp eye for design. At ForCar he mines proprietary vehicle datasets, turning raw numbers into buying advice you can actually trust.
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