In the first half of the 1990s, NHTSA's defects office opened 537 preliminary evaluations, the first formal step in a safety defect investigation. In the first half of the 2020s it opened 111.
Over the same years recalls went the other way. Counting the campaigns that cover the cars and trucks in our database, carmakers issued 429 recalls in 1990–1994 and 2,217 in 2020–2024.
| Years | Preliminary evaluations opened | Recall campaigns | Recalls per investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990–1994 | 537 | 429 | 0.8 |
| 2000–2004 | 330 | 990 | 3.0 |
| 2010–2014 | 201 | 1,157 | 5.8 |
| 2015–2019 | 95 | 1,957 | 20.6 |
| 2020–2024 | 111 | 2,217 | 20.0 |
In the early 1990s the regulator opened more investigations than the industry issued recalls. Today there are about twenty recalls for every investigation.
Fewer cases, longer cases
| Investigations opened | Count | Ended in a recall | Median length |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1972–1989 | 1,630 | 13% | 126 days |
| 1990–2004 | 1,681 | 32% | 137 days |
| 2005–2014 | 665 | 50% | 135 days |
| 2015–2026 | 287 | 46% | 378 days |
The investigations that remain take far longer. Through 2014 the median case closed in four to five months. Since 2015 it has taken more than a year. They are also more likely to end with a recall than before, about half the time against one in eight in the 1970s and 80s.
What changed
Mostly the route a defect takes to a recall. Since the TREAD Act of 2000, manufacturers have had to send the agency early warning data: injury claims, warranty trends and field reports. Many problems now come to light in that data, and when NHTSA raises them the carmaker often recalls the car before any formal investigation is opened.
Carmakers also have more reason to act first. After the GM ignition switch and Takata airbag cases, penalties for slow reporting grew sharply, and recall numbers jumped in 2014 and never came back down.
So the investigations still being opened are increasingly the disputed ones, where the manufacturer doesn't agree there is a defect. Those take longer and end less predictably. Several of the investigations open right now started years ago.
What it means for owners
Complaints still start investigations. Where an opening summary gives a number, the median is 31 owner complaints, which is a small number for a model sold in hundreds of thousands. If a fault frightened you, report it to NHTSA, because your report may be one of the few dozen that start a case.
It also means the recall list for a car keeps growing long after it was built, mostly without any investigation you would ever hear about. Check the VIN for open recalls when you buy a car, and again once a year after that.
Frequently asked questions
How many defect investigations does NHTSA open?
Far fewer than it used to. NHTSA opened 537 preliminary evaluations in 1990–1994 and 111 in 2020–2024, while recall campaigns covering cars and trucks rose from 429 to 2,217 over the same periods.
How long does an NHTSA investigation take?
Investigations opened since 2015 have a median length of 378 days, against 126 to 137 days for those opened before 2015. Some run for six years or more.
How often does an NHTSA investigation lead to a recall?
About half the time for cases opened since 2005, against 32% in 1990–2004 and 13% in the 1970s and 80s. Many more recalls now happen without a formal investigation at all, after the agency raises an issue or the manufacturer spots it in early warning data.
Denis Kataev is a serial solopreneur and the founder of ForCar. With 15+ years in software engineering and 10 years in SEO, he builds data-driven products end to end — backed by a sharp eye for design. At ForCar he mines proprietary vehicle datasets, turning raw numbers into buying advice you can actually trust.
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